CAFX 9月2日市场更新（中英）

今日市场

昨日（9月1日）盘中，美元指数震荡下行。美盘中，美国公布8月ADP就业人数，该数据素有“小非农”之称，被看作是对非农就业数据的提前预测；7月ADP就业人数为增加33万人，市场预期将增加63.8万人，8月ADP就业人数实际录得为增肌37.4万人，增幅远低于预期。数据公布之后，因就业数据低于市场预期增加了美联储将保持鸽派货币政策的市场期望，美元指数短线下挫20点至92.50下方，美国股市纳斯达克指数收盘记录高位，标普500指数维持在历史高位。欧元区7月失业率实际值录得7.6%，符合预期，前值7.7%；因欧元区此前公布的8月通胀数据上升至3%，高通胀压力使得欧央行开始考虑是否将缩减货币宽松政策。EUR/USD盘中一度触及1.1857。周三澳大利亚公布第二季度GDP数据，季率实际值录得0.7%，高于预期0.4%，低于前值1.8%；年率实际值录得9.6%，高于预期9.2%，远高于前值。澳大利亚第二季度GDP表现亮眼，同时受到美元走弱的影响，AUD/USD盘中一度触及0.7384。今日经济数据关注：澳大利亚7月商品及服务贸易帐，7月进口月率，7月出口月率。美国截至8月28日当周初请失业金人数，美国7月贸易帐，美国7月工厂订单月率，美国7月耐用品订单月率。

DATA

•CN August Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 v. 52.1 exp.    

•CN August Non-Manufacturing PMI :  47.5 v. 52.1 exp.    

•NZ August ANZ Business Confidence : -14.2 v. -3.8 prev.   

•AU July Building Approvals : -8.6% v. -5.0% exp.             

•AU Q2 Current Account : 20.5Bio v. 21.5Bio exp.    

•CA June GDP : 0.7% v. 0.7% exp.   

•US August Chicago PMI : 66.8 v. 68.0 exp.

•US August CB Consumer Confidence : 113.8 v. 122.9 exp

The Chinese Manufacturing (50.1 v. 52.1 exp.) and Non-Manufacturing PMI (47.5 v. 52.1 exp.) were lower than expected as the private sector was hit by the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant which put downside pressure on global growth prospects. AUDUSD dropped slightly after the release of these data but buoyed later after New Zealand’s announcement that they will ease restrictions as the recent COVID-19 situation is getting better. Also, investors expect RBNZ to raise the interest rate in October. Global factory activity lost momentum in August as supply chains are disrupted by the COVID-19 delta variant resurgence, the rising concerns about manufacturing and slumping consumption would put downside pressure on the economy. Economics suggests that the supply side issue and related producer price pressure might take longer to resolve than previously expected. China’s factory activity slipped into contraction in August for the first time in nearly 1 to 2 years due to COVID-19 containment measures, supply shortage, and high raw material prices. China's Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in August, from 50.3 in July, approaching the 50-mark separating growth from contraction. On the other side, U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly rises in August amid strong order growth, however, the factory employment measure dropped to a nine-month low. The survey from  Institute for Supply Management (ISM) ON Wednesday reinforced the problem of raw material shortage as the situation worsens by the disruption caused by a coronavirus in Southeast Asia and ports congestions in China. Economist indicates that the rising manufacturing activity in the U.S does not change the story of supply disruption and shortage holding back strong growth.

Major moves in the market

Stocks

• S&P 500 futures were steady as of 8:37 a.m. in Tokyo.  Close : 4,524.09

• Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed.  Close: 15,609.25

• The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2% close: 15,582.61

• Nikkei 225 futures added 0.1% close:  27,789.29

• S&P/ASX 200 futures slipped 0.2%, close : 7,456

• Hang Seng futures rose 0.7% earlier, close:  25,260

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady close : 92.4490

• The euro was at $1.1841

• The offshore yuan was at 6.4518 per dollar

• The Japanese yen was at 110.08 per dollar

Bonds

•The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 1.29%

Commodities

•West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $68.21 a barrel

•Gold was at $1,813.53 an ounce

Upcoming data: 

•JP August Final Manufacturing PMI : 52.4 exp.

•AU Q2 GDP : 0.5% exp.

•CN August Caixin Manufacturing PMI : 50.2 exp.              

•EU August German Manufacturing PMI : 62.7 exp.     

•OPEC Meetings    

•US August ADP Non-Farm Employment Change : 620K exp.  

•US August ISM Manufacturing PMI : 58.5 exp.

•US August ISM Manufacturing Prices : 83.8 exp.  

•US EIA Crude Oil Inventories : -2.5Mio exp.   

•US FOMC Member Bostic to speak