CAFX 9月7日市场更新（中英）

今日市场

周一（9月6日）经济数据清淡，美国与加拿大因劳动节休市一天，市场交投减少；市场波动不大。美元指数盘中在92关口小幅回升，触及92.30；美国原油价格跌至69关口下方，收盘报68.73，因沙特阿拉伯削减对亚洲的原油售价，令产油国之前竞争可能性升高，表明全球市场供应充足，但因疫情影响，原油需求前景引发担忧。因美元回升，G10货币大多自上周疲软的美国非农就业数据公布上涨后的高点回落。今日悉尼时间14.30澳联储将公布利率决议以及政策声明。预计澳大利亚9月现金利率维持不变；而Delta变异毒株的快速扩散导致的经济封锁以及公共健康危机削弱了经济复苏的前景，市场主要聚焦澳联储是否将推迟缩减量化宽松。本周除了澳联储利率决议之外，周三加拿大央行将公布利率决议，周四欧央行将公布利率决议。加拿大央行作为全球领先启动减码的国家之一，基调偏鹰；加拿大央行7月会议中表示，目前因一些暂时性因素驱动通胀上涨，将在通胀持续维持在2%的目标的时候进行加息，这一条件或将在2022年第二季度达到。欧洲央行则相对鸽派，但是上周通胀数据显示目前通胀处于十年高位，并有欧央行官员发表鹰派言论认为是时候准备减码，支撑欧元走高；本周欧元将关注货币政策会议。

DATA

•AU August RBA rate statement

•AU August Cash rate: Exp 0.1%

•EU September German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Exp 30.2

•EU September ZEW  Economic Sentiment: Exp 35.3

It was a quiet start of the week as the U.S. cash market in Treasuries was closed for Labour day. Global stocks rose for the seventh day and the U.S. equity future raised as investors expect slower hiring in the U.S. may delay the Fed’s tapering plan. The U.S. only added 235,000 jobs in August, which is the smallest gain in seven months. USD rose on Monday for the first time in a week. China August Trading data will be released today but there is no exact time for the release, investors expect around midday. RBA will release the rate statement for September this afternoon, three out of the four banks are calling to delay the tapering of bond purchases.

The aggressive fiscal stimulus plan accommodated by money-printing lead to high demand and shortage in supply. In recent weeks, several Fed officials suggested that they may need to start tapering the stimulus plan sooner than potentially at a faster pace than expected. More dovish members including the chair Jay Powell would prefer to wait for pandemic-related distortions to subside before deciding whether the high inflation is persistent and whether the labor market met the Fed’s goal.

New Zealand on Monday accounted that it would ease restrictions outside Auckland. Resident live outside Auckland will be able to return to work and school, and the nationwide alert level will be lowered to Level 2 on Wednesday morning.

Major moves in the market

Stocks

•S&P 500 was down 0.03%, closed at 4,535.43

•Nasdaq Composite rose 0.21%, closed at 15,363.52

•Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index were up 0.07%, closed at 7,528.50

Currencies

•The Japanese yen was at 109.84 per dollar

•The offshore yuan was at 6.4492 per dollar

•The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady

•The euro traded at $1.1872

Bonds

•Australia’s 10-year bond yield rose one basis point to 1.27%

Commodities

•Brent crude oil was at USD/Bbl 72.08

•Gold was at USD/OZ 1823.08 

•Iron ore was at USD/T 144.83