周四（7月15日）市场数据关注到，亚盘中，澳大利亚公布6月失业率，实际值录得4.9%，好于市场预期5.1%，相较于5月的5.1%有所下降。失业率的下降，以及上周澳联储公布自9月开始缩减债券购买规模，仍未能支持AUD/USD突破0.75关口；受到疫情影响，新州延长封城，维州昨日宣布封城，对于疫情的担忧，使得市场避险情绪升温，商品货币等风险资产遭到抛售，AUD/USD昨日盘中最高0.7487，最低0.7410。
美联储主席鲍威尔周四为第二天证词陈述，延续他之前的目前保持宽松的基调，支持目前的高通胀是暂时的，将在未来回落，但会关注风险。并表示，美联储目前还没有就如何缩减资产负债表做出决定。但是昨日美联储官员连番讲话中透露不一样的声音，美联储布拉德表示“是时候结束这些紧急措施”，美联储埃文斯表示“如果通胀看起来更持久，那么可能需要早些调整立场”，认为“如果年底失业率达到4.5%，美联储可能会调整政策”。虽然鲍威尔的基调偏向宽松，但是市场仍预计美联储将在本月货币政策会议中或在下个月的杰克逊霍尔会议（Jackson HoleEconomic Symposium）中，讨论缩减购债计划。同时对于全球疫情的担忧，使得市场青睐美元，美元指数最高92.68。
今日早盘中，新西兰公布第二季度CPI年率，实际值录得3.3%，远高于上一季度1.5%，加上新西兰央行近期偏鹰表现，市场预计新西兰将在今年加息。今日悉尼时间12:30，日本央行将公布利率决议，会后发布经济展望报告，市场预计日本央行将保持超宽松政策，维持大规模经济刺激计划。
美盘中，关注FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表讲话。今日数据，重点关注悉尼时间22:30美国公布6月零售销售数据。
英文版
Data:
AU June MI Inflation Expectations : 3.7% v. 4.4% prev.
AU June Employment Change & Unemployment Rate : 29.1K & 4.9% v. 19.7K & 5.1% exp.
CN Q2 GDP : 7.9% v. 8.0% exp.
CN June Fixed Asset Investment & Industrial Production : 12.6% & 8.3% v. 12.1% & 7.8% exp.
CN June Retail Sales & Unemployment Rate : 12.1% & 5.0% v. 10.9% & 5.0% exp.
UK June Claimant Count Change & Unemployment Rate : -114.8K & 4.8% v. -32.5K & 4.7% exp.
US July Philly Fed Manufacturing Index : 21.9 v. 28.1 exp.
US Unemployment Claims : 360K v. 350K exp.
US June Industrial Production: 0.4% v. 0.6% exp.
AUDUSD Day’sRange: 0.74105 – 0.74847
The June jobreport in Australia showed growth in the job market, however, investors weighthe new strict lockdown in NSW and VIC more than the positive job reports. Newrestrictions were in place in Melbourne due to the increasing number ofdelta-variant cases. Lockdown in Sydney was extended by another two weeks.
U.S. stocks endedlower on Thursday after the Federal Reserve’s chief said recent inflation wasuncomfortably above the Fed’s target level. The Fed is less confident with theeconomic outlook than earlier in the year. The S&P 500 closed down 0.3% andthe Nasdaq composite fell 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished0.2% higher.
China’s economygrew slower than expected in the second quarter due to the higher materialcosts and new COVID-19 outbreaks. GDP expanded 7.9% in April to June quarter,which is significantly lower than the growth of 18.3% in January to Marchperiod.
Upcoming data:
NZ Q2 CPI : 0.7% exp.
JP BOJ Outlook Report and Rate Decision : -0.10% exp. (no change)
US June Core Retail Sales & H/line Retail Sales : 0.4% & -0.4% exp.
US July Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment : 86.5 exp.
Major moves inthe market
Stocks
The S&P 500 fell 0.3%.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7%
Nikkei 225 futures retreated 0.7%
S&P/ASX 200 futures were little changed
Hang Seng futures declined 0.5%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
The euro was at $1.1812
The Japanese yen was at 109.84 per dollar
The offshore yuan was at 6.4622 per dollar
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 1.30%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude was at $71.49 a barrel after falling 2%
Gold was at $1,829.42 an ounce
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