Highlight Review of Databurning's Forecasting for 23Q2

Notice：

Scan the QR code below for a free frial.

Please note that Databurning products are not currently available for download or trial by sell-side institutions or individual users. We appreciate your understanding!

• Financial Report: On August 16th, JD released its 23Q2 results, revealing a product revenue of RMB 233.9bln, marking a YoY increase of 3.5%.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated a mid-single-digit YoY growth for JD’s 23Q2 1P GMV, a mere 2 pct off the official figure.

• Financial Report: On August 24th, Meituan released its 23Q2 results, with No. of on-demand delivery transactions reaching 5.4bln, showing a YoY growth of 31.6%.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning's forecast for the YoY growth of No. of on-demand delivery transactions in 23Q2 aligns closely with disclosed figures, with a mere 2 pct difference.

• Financial Report: On August 29th, PDD announced its 23Q2 financial results, reporting a total revenue of RMB 523bln for 23Q2, with an impressive YoY growth of 66%, well above the street consensus.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated that the GMV growth of PDD's main platform in 23Q2 would see a further increase compared to Q1; besides, Temu’s GMV would also see notable QoQ growth. Since Jul, Databurning has been consistently delivering our data and research insights on PDD that the street is underestimating the topline growth in Q2.

• Financial Report: As per Cloud Village’s 23H1 financial results released on August 24th, the user subscription rate stood at 20.2%.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning's forecast for the user subscription rate in 23H1 closely aligns with the disclosed figure, deviating by a mere 0.1 pct.

• Financial Report: As disclosed in Bilibili’s 23Q2 results released on August 17th, the YoY growth of Bilibili's premium membership maintained downward trend, totaling 20.45mln by the end of June. Besides, No. of content creators with over 10k followers increased by 43% YoY in Q2.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated that the company’s premium membership would show a downward trend, in-line with the company’s reporting. Moreover, Databurning’s forecast for growth trend of content creators with over 10k followers closely aligns with the official figure, deviating by only 1 pct.

• Financial Report: On August 16th, Dada released its 23Q2 results. As of June 30th, 2023, JDDJ had generated a 12-month GMV of RMB 70.8bln, marking a YoY growth of 29.8%.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning's forecast for JDDJ’s YoY growth over the same span aligns closely with disclosed figures, differing by only 2 pct.

• Financial Report: BEKE's 23Q2 results showed a Q2 GTV of RMB 780.6bln, indicating a YoY growth of 22.1%. Within this, the GTV for existing home transactions grew by 16% YoY.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated a YoY growth of over 15% for in the GTV of BEKE's existing home transactions, closely in-line with the official figure.

• Financial Report: SEA (NYSE: SE), Shopee's parent company, released its 23Q2 financial results and conducted conference call on August 15th. Specifically, Shopee reported a revenue of USD 2.1bln for 23Q2, which was below the market consensus of USD 2.25bln. Notably, e-commerce was the only sector of SEA that did not meet the consensus.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated Shopee's GMV for 23Q2 to see a YoY decline of 10%, which is worse than the market consensus of -3% YoY. This aligns with the situation that e-commerce revenue was significantly lower than the market consensus.

• Financial Report: On August 3rd, Amazon released its 23Q2 results. The net sales from online stores totaled USD 53bln, marking a YoY increase of 4.2%.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated a mid-single-digit YoY growth for Amazon's 1P GMV in 23Q2, which aligns closely with the official figure.

• Financial Report: According to eBay’s 23Q2 financial report, the company achieved a Q2 GMV of USD 18.2bln, representing a YoY of -1.6%.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated a mid-to-low single-digit YoY decline for eBay's 23Q2 GMV, which closely in-line with the official figure.

• Financial Report: According to ETSY's 23Q2 results, the Etsy marketplace GMS totaled USD 2.6bln in Q2, remaining flat YoY.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated ETSY's 23Q2 GMS to remain on par with 2022’s level, which highly aligns with the official figure.

• Financial Report: According to Coupang’s financial report, in 23Q2, the net retail sales reached 15% YoY, and the net revenue of product commerce reached 16% YoY.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated a YoY growth of 18% in Coupang's GMV over the same span. Given Coupang's subsequent adjustments in revenue recognition, Databurning’s forecast aligns closely with the official figure in the e-commerce sector.

• Financial Report: On August 28th, Li Ning released its 23H1 results, showing a 1.7% YoY increase in e-commerce channel revenue.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated a 3% YoY increase for Li Ning's self-operated e-commerce GMV in 23H1, closely in-line with the officially disclosed growth rate.

• Financial Report: Anta released its 23H1 results on August 31st, showing a 22% YoY increase in e-commerce sales.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated a 23% YoY increase for Anta’s self-operated e-commerce GMV in 23H1, closely in-line with the company’s reporting.

• Financial Report: On August 29th, Bloomage released its 23H1 results, revealing revenue of RMB 1.966bln from functional skincare products, representing an YoY growth of -8%.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated an -11% YoY growth of the company’s e-commerce channel GMV for 23H1, which is a 3pct deviation from the official figure.

• Financial Report: Marubi released its 23H1 results on Aug 25th. During this half year, the YoY growth of the company’s online direct sales (dominated by Douyin) increased by 120%.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated a 110% YoY growth in Marubi's direct e-commerce GMV for 23H1, which is largely in-line with the officially disclosed growth rate.

• Financial Report: On August 29th, Mobigarden announced its core operational metrics for 23H1. The online sales revenue increased by 23% YoY, reaching CNY 180mln.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated a 19% YoY increase for Mobigarden's self-operated e-commerce GMV in 23H1, marking a 4pct deviation from the official figure.

• Financial Report: Shouxiangu announced its 23H1 results on August 24th. The company reported its online sales revenue of CNY 93.7mln, indicating a YoY growth of 29%.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated that Shouxiangu’s e-commerce GMV would reach 27% YoY in 23H1, which is closely in-line with official figure and deviating by only 2pct.

• Financial Report: On July 25th, HTHT disclosed its key operational metrics in 23Q2. During this quarter, the RevPAR/ADR/Occ showed YoY growth of +77%/+40%/+17pct, respectively.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated that HTHT’s RevPAR/ADR/Occ would show a YoY growth of +80%, +40%, and +17pct respectively in Q2, closely in-line with official figures.

• Financial Report: On August 1st, Luckin Coffee released its 23Q2 results, revealing a significant 88% YoY increase in revenue. By the end of June, the company had 10,836 stores in total.

• Databurning Forecast: Databurning estimated that Luckin would have 10,534 stores by the end of June, with in-store traffic expected to surge by 95% YoY, largely aligning with official figures.