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A Global Look at Residential Solar Adoption Rates

A Global Look at Residential Solar Adoption Rates Join Renon
2022-12-17
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导读:Solar technology is advancing rapidly, making solar easier to adopt, while there is still a large gr


RENON POWER

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RENON SCENT | COMMENTARY

TOPIC

Residential Solar Adoption Rates

COUNTRY / REGION

Global



Introduction

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✦ Still a potential growth in solar market

Solar technology is advancing at a rapid rate, making solar easier to adopt. However, there is still a large potential of growth when it comes to the solar market.


Looking at global data, solar photovoltaic (PV) generation has steadily increased for the past several years, and showed the second-largest absolute generation growth of all renewable technologies in 2020, just behind wind and just ahead of hydropower, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). A recent analysis from the U.S. Energy Information Administration said global rooftop solar PV installations are expected to jump to almost 95 GW by 2025, up from 59 GW last year.


It is important to note the various reasons why some countries and states may have low residential adoption rates. In some locations, irradiance, or the amount of sunlight a location gets, may be low, making solar a less viable energy source. In other cases, electricity prices may already be low, reducing the need to have a solar system installed, and a lack of incentives may make going solar more expensive than drawing power from the grid.


Lastly, a country’s residential buildings may be unsuitable for a solar system due to the buildings’  structural integrity or the building type.




U.S. Leads North America


The U.S. is the leading country in North America (Figure 1) when it comes to installed solar capacity.

Figure 1. This world map shows which countries have the most power generation from solar. The U.S. is the leading country in North America. Source: Tigo Energy


The cumulative residential solar installation capacity is about 22,151 megawatts (MW), and the total residential solar adoption rate is about 3%, assuming the average residential solar system size is 5 kilowatts (kW). 


But the U.S. is a large country, so let’s focus on some states to give you a better picture of the adoption rates by region. The table below (Figure 2) shows the percentage of solar homes in eight U.S. states, calculated by using data on the total number of houses from the 2020 U.S. Census and number of solar houses from a variety of sources.

Figure 2. Adoption rates of residential solar systems in various U.S. states. Courtesy: Tigo Energy


The variation in the residential adoption rate by state is due to multiple factors, including weather, incentives, utility rate plans, incidence of homes, and more.


For instance, Hawaii relies heavily on imported energy, which results in high electricity prices. Therefore, Hawaii has turned to solar to produce its own electricity at a much lower cost. 


On the other hand, one reason why Florida has lower residential adoption rates is due to the low electricity prices, which result in longer payback periods for homeowners. 


California, on the other hand, has a mix of excellent solar potential, high electricity rates, and incentives, which enable shorter payback periods for residential solar installations.





Europe

Germany

Germany is the leading country when it comes to solar capacity in Europe. Germany has long supported and incentivized solar deployments, and as a result has a relatively high penetration of residential solar installations and solar companies.


There are an estimated 11.7 million one- and two-family houses that are suitable for a solar system in Germany; at the end of 2020, it was estimated more than 1.3 million systems were installed. Therefore, the residential adoption rate is about 11%.


Netherlands 

In the Netherlands, there are roughly 8 million houses, and 1.3 million of these houses have solar installed. Therefore, the residential adoption rate is roughly 16%.





Africa


Africa is the hottest continent on Earth and has the most sunlight compared to any other continent. Therefore, the solar generation potential is very strong. However, since many countries in Africa are developing, adopting solar may not be a financially sound thing to do for many.

South Africa

In South Africa, the current cumulative solar capacity as of December 2021 is 4,172 MW. Large-scale PV represents more than half of the solar capacity; about 20% consists of residential systems. However, the residential adoption rate is quite low due to the affordability of solar.


Many low-income households rely on government electricity subsidies, like receiving 50 kWh of free electricity per month, but about 70% of low-income households rely on other sourcesof energy (such as wood and paraffin) to satisfy their basic energy needs.





China

China installed 54.88 GW of PV in 2021.

Image: Sungrow


China is the biggest contributor to the global solar capacity and represents 31% of the global total. However, most of this power is coming from large-scale solar farms. In fact, China has some of the biggest solar farms, behind only India. But when it comes to residential solar installations, it is still a work in progress.


A document released by the National Energy Administration called for a trial program to promote rooftop solar projects, with a goal to have at least 20% of all residential rooftops equipped with solar in 25 provincial-level regions. This program will help increase the availability of rooftop solar in rural areas, and will help China reach a carbon dioxide emissions peak by 2030, and carbon neutrality by 2060.



Summary

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As mentioned above, many countries are still working toward the goal to have more solar installed on residential homes, and have a working strategy to reach their achievements. Currently, Australia is the ringleader when it comes to the highest residential adoption rates, at 31%.


Solar is already the lowest-cost form of energy production in the world and costs continue to decline. As countries implement plans for increased renewable energy in their mix, it’s clear that rooftop solar is going to have a prominent role. Based on this analysis of adoption rates, there is an enormous potential for growth in all the countries reviewed, even the ones like Australia that have relatively high solar penetration. 


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