Top 50 Largest Importers
In 2022, global imports reached a significant milestone, totaling $25.6 trillion in value, approximately equivalent to the U.S. GDP. The expansion of global trade plays a pivotal role in providing consumers with diverse choices and potentially reducing the cost of goods. Additionally, businesses benefit from improved input quality, enhancing competitiveness.
The graphic presents the 50 largest importers based on data from the World Trade Organization (WTO). The United States leads the list with $3.4 trillion in imports, marking a 15% annual increase despite economic challenges. China, the second-largest economy, follows with imports valued at $2.7 trillion, although growth has slowed. Several European countries, led by Germany and the Netherlands, feature prominently in the top 10 importers. The European Union emerges as the largest global importer in agricultural products, fuels, mining products, and automotive products.
Global Trade Fragmentation
The World Trade Organization projects a potential 1.2% contraction in import volumes across North and South America, Asia, and Europe in 2023. This decline may be attributed to slower demand in manufacturing economies. Trade fragmentation is uncertain, with indicators such as the share of intermediate goods in world trade decreasing to 48.5% in H1 2023. This could suggest either supply chain contraction or the influence of higher commodity prices affecting intermediate goods more than final goods.
Various factors impact global trade, including subsidies, export bans, and legislative policies like the $52.7 billion U.S. CHIPS Act, encouraging local semiconductor production. The effect of these factors on broader trends of global de-globalization remains to be seen.
Various factors impact global trade, including subsidies, export bans, and legislative policies like the $52.7 billion U.S. CHIPS Act, encouraging local semiconductor production. The effect of these factors on broader trends of global de-globalization remains to be seen.
The latest Goods Trade Barometer from the World Trade Organization (WTO) indicates a rebound in global merchandise trade volumes. The index stands at 100.7, surpassing the August reading of 99.1. This suggests an expected alignment with the medium-term trend in the latter half of 2023. However, uncertainty persists due to inconsistent economic data and escalating geopolitical tensions.
While global merchandise trade shows signs of recovery, uncertainties linger amid economic challenges and geopolitical issues. The trajectory of global trade will be influenced by factors such as demand, supply chain dynamics, and policy decisions. Continuous monitoring and adaptation to evolving trends will be crucial for businesses and policymakers navigating the complex landscape of international trade in the coming years.
The improvement in the external environment may stimulate import growth
According to the latest 'China Economic and Financial Outlook Report (2024)' released by the China Banking Research Institute, it is projected that China's GDP will grow by 5.6% in the fourth quarter, reaching a full-year growth of 5.3% in 2023, surpassing the annual target of 5%. Looking ahead to 2024, there is a possibility of improvement in the external environment, and the effects of growth-stabilizing policies will continue to manifest, with domestic demand expected to sustain its recovery.
The release of this signal suggests that, with improvements in the external environment and domestic policy support, there may be positive impacts on China's imports and consumption. In 2024, expectations are high for China's performance.
在2022年，全球进口达到了一个重要的里程碑，总值达到25.6万亿美元，大致相当于美国的国内生产总值（GDP）。全球贸易的扩张在为消费者提供多样选择和潜在降低商品成本方面发挥着关键作用。此外，企业受益于提高的输入质量，增强了竞争力。
图表展示了根据世界贸易组织（WTO）数据列出的前50大进口国。美国以3.4万亿美元的进口总额居首，尽管面临经济挑战，但同比增长15%。作为全球第二大经济体，中国的进口总额达到2.7万亿美元，尽管增速放缓。德国和荷兰等几个欧洲国家在前10大进口国中占据显著地位。欧盟成为全球农产品、燃料和矿产品以及汽车产品最大的进口国。
全球贸易碎片化
世界贸易组织预测2023年，北美、南美、亚洲和欧洲的进口量可能会下降1.2%。这一下降可能归因于制造业经济需求放缓。贸易分散情况不确定，表现在诸如2023年上半年世界贸易中中间品所占份额下降至48.5%等指标。这可能表明供应链收缩，但也可能是由于较高的大宗商品价格对中间品的影响大于对最终品的影响。
各种因素影响全球贸易，包括补贴、出口禁令以及像总值为527亿美元的美国CHIPS法案这样的立法政策，鼓励本地生产半导体。这些因素对全球去全球化的趋势产生的更广泛影响仍有待观察。
世界贸易组织最新发布的商品贸易晴雨表显示全球商品贸易量出现反弹。该指数为100.7，超过了8月份的99.1的读数。这表明商品贸易量有望在2023年下半年与中期趋势保持一致。然而，由于经济数据不一致和地缘政治紧张局势的加剧，不确定性仍然存在。
尽管全球商品贸易显示出复苏的迹象，但在经济挑战和地缘政治问题的背景下，不确定性仍然存在。全球贸易的轨迹将受到需求、供应链动态和政策决策等因素的影响。对于在未来几年内适应不断变化的趋势的企业和政策制定者来说，持续监测和适应将至关重要。
外部环境改善可能促进进口增长
中国银行研究院最新发布的《中国经济金融展望报告（2024年）》预计，四季度中国GDP增长5.6%，2023年全年增长5.3%，高于全年的5%的预期目标。展望2024年，外部环境或有所改善，稳增长政策将继续显现，国内需求有望持续修复。
这一信号的释出，暗示了外部环境改善和国内政策支持的情况下，可能会对中国的进口和消费产生积极的影响，2024年，可以期待一下中国的表现。