The current "De Minimis Rule" in the United States allows imported goods with a value of less than $800 per day to enter without duties or taxes, and the customs clearance process is relatively simple. This policy has provided significant support for cross-border e-commerce platforms like Temu, enabling them to ship small packages directly from China to U.S. consumers. However, recently, the U.S. Congress and industry associations have proposed modifying this rule, arguing that it has been abused and may create unfair competition for domestic businesses. If this policy adjustment is implemented, cross-border e-commerce companies like Temu will face challenges such as rising costs, weakened price advantages, reduced logistics efficiency, and increased compliance pressures. These issues will also directly or indirectly affect logistics companies.
📈Cost Surge
Increase in small package direct shipping fees: According to JPMorgan's estimate, cross-border e-commerce small package direct shipping costs will rise from the current $3.5 to $9.5 per shipment.
Increase in customs clearance agency fees: DHL and UPS have issued early warnings that customs clearance fees are expected to increase by 15%-20%.
⏳Changes in Timeliness
Increase in customs inspection rates: According to data from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the customs inspection rate is expected to rise from 3% to 15%, and customs reviews will become stricter.
Logistics delay:
🦋 Butterfly Effect
Logistics companies: Small freight forwarders will face greater cash flow pressure, and payment terms may extend from 30 days to 60 days.
Suppliers: Factories in Eastern China have already seen a rise in "shifting from U.S. to Europe" orders, reflecting the geographical migration trend in the supply chain.
Consumers: Research from Temu shows that a 10% price increase on products under $15 will lead to a 42% loss in customers, showing the significant impact of price sensitivity on consumer behavior.
🔧Breaking the Impasse
Supply chain adjustments: Orders from factories in Vietnam and Mexico have surged, taking advantage of the U.S.-Mexico Free Trade Agreement to benefit from zero tariffs. This is expected to reduce tariff costs by 28%, though labor costs may increase by 15%.
Logistics model innovation: "Sub-package processing" strategy: For example, when shipping 1,000 $10 items directly to the U.S., 300 items are first shipped by sea to a Los Angeles warehouse to reduce the tariff base. The remaining 700 items are then transshipped via Malaysia to the U.S. to obtain ASEAN tariff benefits. This approach is expected to reduce the overall cost increase from 30% to 12%.
"Curve entry" route: Using a route through China → Mexico bonded warehouse → U.S.-Mexico land transport to bypass direct import duties from China to the U.S.
Sea freight consolidation + overseas warehouse: By using sea freight consolidation combined with overseas warehouse storage, while the inventory holding period will need to be 90 days, costs can be reduced by 40%.
Data breakthroughs
* Registering a U.S. importer code (IOR) to enhance compliance.
* Using AI customs declaration tools to automatically generate HS codes, improving customs efficiency.
* Providing early warnings for categories such as clothing, electronic accessories, and plastic products to proactively respond to the potential impact of the new policy.
The cancellation of the "De Minimis Rule" by the U.S. will have a far-reaching impact on the cross-border e-commerce and logistics industries. Cross-border e-commerce companies will have to face higher tariffs and more complex customs procedures, which may lead to higher prices, customer loss, and increased cost pressures. Logistics companies will also need to adjust their operational strategies, optimize transportation methods, and improve compliance to adapt to the challenges brought by these policy changes. To survive and thrive in the new policy environment, cross-border e-commerce companies and logistics providers will need to continuously innovate and adjust their supply chain strategies.
美国现行的“最低限度规则（De Minimis Rule）”允许单日价值800美元以下的进口商品免除关税和税费，清关流程也较为简便。该政策对Temu等跨境电商平台提供了重要支持，使它们能够通过小额包裹直邮的方式，直接从中国发货到美国消费者手中。然而，近期美国国会及行业协会提出修改该规则，认为这一政策存在滥用现象，可能对本土企业造成不公平竞争。一旦政策调整落地，Temu等跨境电商将面临成本上升、价格优势削弱、物流效率下降以及合规压力增大的难题，这些问题也将直接或间接影响到物流企业。
📈成本飙升：
小包直邮物流费上涨：根据摩根大通的预测，跨境电商的小包直邮物流费用将从现有的$3.5飙升至$9.5/单。
清关代理费增加：DHL和UPS已提前发出预警，预计清关代理费将上调15%-20%。
⏳时效改变：
海关查验率上升：根据美国国土安全部的数据显示，海关查验率预计将从3%上升至15%，清关审核将变得更加严格。
物流时效延误：
🦋 蝴蝶效应：
物流商：小型货代企业的现金流压力将加大，账期可能从30天延长至60天。
供应商：华东地区工厂已出现“弃美转欧”订单的现象，显示出供应链的地理迁移趋势。
消费者：Temu用户调研显示，低于$15的商品若价格上涨10%，将导致42%的客户流失，价格敏感性对消费者行为的影响非常显著。
🔧破局动作：
供应链调整：越南和墨西哥的工厂订单量激增，借助美墨自贸协定享受零关税政策，预计关税成本可降低28%，但人工成本可能增加15%。
物流模式创新：
* “分包处理”策略：例如，1000单$10商品直邮美国时，通过提前海运300单至洛杉矶仓来降低关税基数，再将剩余的700单通过马来西亚转运至美国，从而获取东盟关税优惠，预计综合成本增幅将从30%降至12%。
* “曲线入美”路线：通过中国→墨西哥保税仓→美墨陆运的方式，绕过直接从中国进口美国的关税。
* “海运拼柜+海外仓”：通过海运拼柜的方式，结合海外仓储，虽然压货时间需要达到90天，但成本可降低40%。
数据突围：
* 注册美国进口商代码（IOR），加强合规性；
* 利用AI报关工具，自动生成HS CODE，提高报关效率；
* 对服装、电子配件、塑料制品等类目进行预警，提前应对新政策可能带来的影响。
美国取消“最低限度规则”将对跨境电商和物流行业带来深远影响。跨境电商公司将不得不面对更高的关税和复杂的清关程序，可能导致价格上涨、用户流失以及成本压力增加。物流企业也需调整运营策略，优化运输方式，提升合规性，以适应这一政策变动带来的挑战。为了在新的政策环境下生存和发展，跨境电商公司和物流企业将需要不断创新和调整供应链策略。